Mathematics After The Fall

Archive for the ‘Politics and News’ Category

Birthdays, Logistics, and Deathdays

I had my birthday on Thursday, another one, for which I’m thankful. (Thanks for the messages.) If I hadn’t, this piece wouldn’t be written. I’m not yet ready for death. Someone found it strange that one of my common morning prayers is Thank You for the day, even the ones with a futile meeting and two classes and homework to grade. Yes, even the mediocre hand scribbled, copied, piles of homework.

As I woke up for my birthday, people were dying. They always are. Sometimes it’s massive and sudden. For instance, did the people of Port-au-Prince think about an earthquake two weeks ago? Likely not. There is no possible way to bring relief quickly enough. PAP airport has one runway, space for about a dozen planes, and no normal tower. From less than 20 daily planes, it now handles 140.

It doesn’t surprise me that people have complained from afar. It’s the French way. Occupation? Why would the US want to invade Haiti? Seriously? What would we want? I’m also angry with people like this
Huffington Post idiot who somehow imagines that logistics happen. Looking at his biography explains things. He’s worked as a policy analyst, not on the ground!
He has a degree in Economics, where people believe that men are rational and the market is efficient! We’d be better off listening to George Clooney, who has shown how to organize something. And we’d be better off reducing the number of reporters and government leaders. Quit talking and transport water filters and Plumpy’nut!

Haiti is an example of terror and death. Maybe it will improve American preparation. I’m checking my supplies. Today I recharged my powerpack. I have a water filter- do you? – but my stock of prepared liquids are a little low right now, so I’ll add another case of water. Stuff like that.

At the same time as the large events, I don’t want to neglect simpler deathdays. Again, as I awoke Thursday, one of my former students was on the road. Maybe she was in a hurry to get to a 9:25 class. Noel crashed, and as this short Courier-Journal article notes, she died.

I had Noel in the fall for Math 200. Though she and her buddies were not particularly enthusiastic about statistics, she was pleasant in our interactions. And I know she was happy with the grade she earned. I remember her jeans. Apparently, now ripping the knees out of jeans is somewhat fashionable. I never understood why people would want to look sloppy and poor, but some do, like Noel did. I wouldn’t call Noel the most memorable student I had. She wasn’t. She was one of many stories. Now, on this earth, she’s no more.

There will be some memorial at Bellarmine, which I’ll likely attend. As with Haiti, maybe this will spur people to individual action. We’ll appreciate our birthday mornings, and all the other mornings, a little bit more. Maybe my Thank You prayers will be a little longer. Eventually, they’ll run out, just I hope not yet.

Round-the-world ticket guide

I got the idea for a round-the-world trip by looking at my summer schedule. In July, I’m scheduled to be in central Europe at a conference. Two weeks later, another meeting is in Vancouver. After teaching summer school, I’m open from roughly July 1 to August 15. Since I have friends who teach and work in China, Korea, and Austrlia, I thought about taking the long route. I thought I’d share the round-the-world information I gathered. As a statistician, I can make it through the tedium of data entry. I was watching gridiron football all day and wanted something to do. Since I’m a young professor, that makes me primarily a budget traveler, though I also included higher fare information.

For people in a hurry, here’s the summary on trips from the USA:

• Buying a ticket is not cheap. Except for special restricted fares, expect to pay US$4000 to 5000 in economy, and about $10,000 in business class. You’re getting a lot of travel for this, of course.
• The cheapest options almost never begin in the USA. A “positioning” flight to start the circuit will cost little to nothing, sometimes even saving you money, plus can give you a bonus visit to your starting city.
• If you want to visit Great Britain, South Africa or southeast Asia, and Oceania, there are special tickets out of London.
• SkyTeam has limited southern hemisphere coverage and the worst booking class, making it somewhat less effective. London is the best starting place, though you need a local agent.
• oneworld has the Continent pass xONEx, which gives you more flexibility within continents. It’s especially good in South America. For South American journeys, start there; otherwise positioning may or may not help. You need either a local agent or a Canadian agent.
• Star Alliance has the largest number of partners, no local agent requirement, and great worldwide coverage except South America. From the US, your best positioning options are the middle east, northern Africa, and South Africa.

Here’s the list of choices, from lowest ticket price to highest. Costs I provide were found in late November 2009, for tickets beginning in July 2010. I list US dollar estimated total cost, base cost plus a non-trivial amount of taxes, fees, and “fuel surcharges”. Why fuel is not a normal part of the ticket is beyond my pay grade. A spreadsheet of cost by country is also available.

• Restricted Economy ($2500 + 900 US positioning): There are a couple single carrier options, like Singapore Air. Then there are small alliances, particularly for trips beginning from London that include Australia or New Zealand. See, for example, the Great Escapade and World Walkabout Plus. Though restricted in airlines, for a trip with London, Oceania, and either South Africa or Asia, this is likely cheapest. One gets 29,000 travel miles, plus a free bonus trip to London. I’ll explain more below.
• Special Economy ($4000): Star Alliance, Skyteam, and Oneworld offer a 26,000 mile option, with between 3 and 5 stopovers. By sticking to major cities with nonstop service, there are plenty of good options. For example, Louisville-Rome-Istanbul-Beijing-Sydney-Vancouver-Louisville works on Star Alliance. Smaller cities, however, have to be added through separate round trips from a permitted stopover, or a longer ticket.
• Economy Mileage ($4500 to 6000): The major alliances also offer 29,000, 34,000, and 39,000 mile options, with up to 16 flight segments and thus 15 stopovers. For Skyteam and Star Alliance, from the US, flying a positioning flight to somewhere else (London for Skyteam, Mideast or South America or South Africa for Star Alliance) will get you an extra trip at almost no extra cost.
• Continent Based ($4500 to 7000): Oneworld offers the explorer ticket xONEx that restricts the number of continents, not miles. If you want to travel between multiple places on three or four continents, this is the best option. Positioning will help with Southern Hemisphere trips, and in some other cases.
• Business ($8500+) and First ($13000+): At this level, I suspect that alliance preference will be most important. In all cases, positioning can help. If you’re in the US or Euro Zone, and are willing to take a economy class flight to a different start point, that flight will cost negative dollars. Star Alliance Business class is substantially cheaper from Japan or the Middle East. Skyteam is cheaper from India. On oneworld, the Middle East is cheaper.

Positioning: The cost of any round-the-world ticket is based on the country where the trip begins, and sometimes on the country where the ticket is booked. Some differences are sizable. For instance, YRWSTAR1 (Star alliance, 29,000 miles, Economy class) is $4861 beginning in Canada, but $2684 beginning in South Africa. You could pay separately for a ticket to South Africa, start the circumnavigation there, and then fly back, all for less money.
With positioning, you can also create an extra trip. Round the world tickets generally have a 12 month window. Good booking gives you a second trip to the positioning city, several months after the main trip. Here’s an example. In July, I start in the US and position to London. Then I circle around to the US, then stop. In December, I complete the round-the-world booking to London. Then, after an extra holiday, I return on the second half of the positioning flight.
There are a couple caveats. For oneworld and SkyTeam, you will need someone in the other country to book the ticket, else you pay home country fare, though Star Alliance and special fares do not have this requirement. Though I have no recommendation, you should be able to find a reputable agent. To be safe, you might also book the positioning flight on another alliance, because add-ons and end-to-end combinations are generally not permitted. Now, for notes by program.

• Great Escapade: Unlike large alliance programs, the fare depends on the time of year. Economy fare is usually under $2000, plus fees; Upper class fare is $8376, not a discount. There aren’t many airlines, just Virgin Atlantic VS, Air New Zealand NZ, Singapore Airlines SQ, and Silkair MI. For mileage junkies, Singapore and Air NZ are part of Star Alliance; the other two are mostly avoidable.

  For the base 29,000 miles, you can include South Africa or Asia along with Oceania, but going to both is difficult. Extra miles are available at about $200 per 1500 miles, up to 4500, if you want that. Also note that Delhi is almost exactly on the route from London to Singapore. It costs 5 extra miles. Really, that’s a single digit, making it hard to pass up.

  I believe this ticket is best for someone who wants to see London, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. This fare does not need a British booking agent. (The World Walkabout Fare from Qantas is cheaper but more restrictive.) A booking like London-Delhi-Singapore-Bangkok-Singapore-Hong Kong-Sydney-Auckland-Los Angeles (stop) London even has room for a flight within New Zealand.

• SkyTeam: Flying from London is cheap on SkyTeam, cheaper than almost everywhere else. OK, Pakistan is less. From the US or Europe, starting from London is the only way to make economy fares competitive. India and London are the options for business class. You will need a local agent.

  SkyTeam tickets have weaknesses. One is a relative lack of connections in South America and Oceania. The other, perhaps more troubling, is a low booking class. Economy fares are listed as class L and business fares as class I. These are fairly heavily discounted on SkyTeam, thus tougher to find than on Star Alliance and oneworld. Overall, I believe this ticket only makes sense for primary SkyTeam customers.

• oneworld: In business class, the Global Explorer offers 34,000 miles at the same price as other 29,000 mile products. That said, the continent Explorer passes are more interesting; the oneworld website routes them. Availability is better than SkyTeam because booking class L is less restricted. Also, because of the lack of mileage limits, hopping around continents is easy. For instance, Buenos Aires-Madrid-Rome-Helsinki-Stockholm-London-Beijing-Tokyo-Bangkok-Sydney-Auckland-Santiago-Easter Island-Buenos Aires is legal, at 4 continents and almost 40000 miles.

  People in Europe do not have to travel to London, as the fare difference is small. People in the US who want to visit South America should start there. I suggest Buenos Aires, which also has nonstop flights to Europe. Then you can see South America, Europe, Africa or Asia, and Oceania on a 4 continent pass. The key flights involved are Sydney-Buenos Aires and Auckland-Santiago.

  Otherwise, a US positioning flight will depend on the cost of the extra flight and the route desired. Auckland, New Zealand, can be attractive. According to the sales restrictions, you will need a booking agent in the starting country, otherwise you will pay your home fare if higher, except if you book in Canada OR you book in the European Common Aviation Area and start there. Really. I don’t make these things up. Overall, I believe oneworld is great for trips involving Oceania and South America. It’s the only option for Easter Island. Around the rest of the world, except Africa, oneworld has a solid network.

• Star Alliance: With the most airlines, this network is largest, and except for South America has great coverage. This leads to relatively few mileage-sapping detours. From the US, the Star special economy YRWSPCL gives 26,000 miles and 5 stopovers, for under $4000 including fees. The booking class is moderate. For more destinations within a region, Star Alliance offers a regional pass add-on. For a simple non-positional circumnavigation, it’s the best deal.

  Above that, the booking class is a fairly unrestricted M. Unfortunately, prices out of the USA and Canada are high. A positioning trip not only adds an extra stopover, it saves money. For instance, the US 29,000 mile fare is $4775. A trip to Casablanca, plus a 29,000 mile circuit, totals about $4200, and includes a second trip to Morocco. From reading the Sales Restrictions of the YRWSTAR1 fare, Star Alliance tickets do not need a local agent.

  For positioning, you can bring out the usual suspects, such as Israel, Jordan, and Dubai, plus Casablanca. South Africa costs more to get there, but you can arrange an additional stopover in transit. For business class, Tokyo’s rates are attractive.

I hope this information is helpful. All in all, despite the frustrations and tiny seats, airline travel is a marvelous gift. Have fun!

The Office of the President

After a summer full of town hall yelling and assault rifle protests, last night we finally reached the point where an elected representative decided to act like a five year old who can’t find a toy. As you likely know,
Representative Joe Wilson of South Carolina made an excited utterance during President Obama’s speech last night. He apologized, and President Obama accepted.

Looking through the commentary, most bemoan a declining civility in public life. Some are more interesting, like a reminder of today’s Morning Psalter, 1 Peter 4:8-11, over at Vox Nova. Others, with a sense of history, have pointed out Preston Brooks, another South Carolinian who beat a fellow Senator with a cane inside the Senate chamber.

The problem, I think, is that we have fused the individual with the office. For instance, earlier this week President Obama gave a speech designed for schoolchildren. Some people demanded an alternative to listening to the speech, fearing socialist indoctrination. A great response was provided by two Forbes columnists. Despite disagreeing on policy, they liked the idea and the speech. As they wrote, “Personally, we believe that our children should learn to respect and honor the Office of the President of the United States of America–no matter who sits in that office or what their politics are.”

During my undergraduate days, I had a conversation with a conservative, not too fond of President Clinton at the time. There was some talk around campus about verbally disrupting a Presidential appearance. He was unhappy at the idea of disruption. Maybe before, maybe after, but during would be wrong. The fact that he led us meant he deserved respect, despite his seemingly wrong policies.

That was very good counsel, which I remembered through the years of George W. Bush. If I had the opportunity to meet him in person, I would do so. I would greet him politely. If he asked me to help the nation, I would. Even an sketchy-serving drunk driving idiot deserves that, not because of him, because of the office.

And I’m reminded of the Medal of Honor. As the highest award available for American military service, any recipient deserves respect. Military conduct strongly suggests that a recipient be saluted first, regardless of rank. This poses a quandary, because a higher ranking militarist should not salute someone lower. How does this get solved? Technically, the general or whoever does not salute the person; he or she salutes the medal.

That’s the proper solution; no matter the person, the rank is still there. I have respected the Office of the President, and will respect it in the future. Even if it was someone reprehensible. Since Representative Wilson served in the Army National Guard, one would think he knew about decorum. Maybe that just got lost, like a toy.

This was influenza, only influenza.

In case you haven’t heard, there’s a potential pandemic flu floating around now, enough to make the US government have a website. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention publishes alerts like “Interim Guidance for People who have Close Contact with Pigs in Non-commercial Settings.” Really. They do. So far, even though as of last week there were 40,000 American cases of H1N1 flu, we seem to have dodged a bullet. So far.

Back in January and February, I decided to start researching the deadliest pandemic of the last century. Part of that was to teach it in Stochastic Processes. My students enjoyed the topic (even though they didn’t like the course that much; it does take a real interest in mathematical modeling to like this stuff.) I put an H1N1 question on their final exam in late April. Who knew? Well, maybe the hypothetical conspiracy plotters, but nobody else. My preparation included reading a well-regarded book on the 1918 pandemic, The Great Influenza – the story of the deadliest pandemic in history – by John M. Barry. What I was looking for was, well, a disease thriller – the story of what happened, when, and how much it hurt. How did the “Spanish flu” get around the world? Did anything work? What was the cost?

In this book, I got that. Unfortunately, I got another basically unrelated book, as well; a history of medical schools and medical research at the end of the 19th century. This is a shame. If you like biographies, full of reports about this scientist not liking that scientist, or this political fight, the other book is for you. There’s lots, and lots, of that. Mr. Berry claims in the Acknowledgments, “This book was initially supposed to be a straightforward story of the deadliest epidemic in human history, told from the perspectives of both scientists who tried to fight it and political leaders who tried to respond to it. … it didn’t seem possible to write about the scientists without exploring the nature of American medicine at this time.”

He’s wrong. Actually, he wrote that book inside this bigger one. That book, well, would be really, really good. It wouldn’t be spectacular, because there are still problems. One is that Mr. Berry has a catchphrase, the title of this post. He repeats it a lot. It’s not a good catchphrase either, unlike, say Where’s the Beef? Like the commercial, there’s a whole lot of gossip bun around the pandemic beef.

Nevertheless, there is a good bit of beef. (If you like the scientist stuff, you’ll find even more.) One is why the flu is called “Spanish”. As Mr. Berry explains, the flu did not start in Spain; the most valid theory is, of all places, Kansas. During World War I, Spain did not practice press censorship, and let disease reports flow freely. Thus the name. Other places, including the good ol’ USA, hid details as much as possible. Part of this was military as described in this PBS interview, but part was also to “prevent panic”. It was interesting. Additionally, the hypothesis about President Wilson at the 1919 Paris peace conference is Chapter 32 is extremely illuminating. And, as a side note, three Congressmen were taken by the flu. These details, and statistics, are invaluable. You can find some at the Stanford page and through Wikipedia, yet the good book provides more context and a better story.

Let me give you the chapters for this better book. Read the Prologue, Chapter 6, 11, 13 through 18, 26 through 35, and the Afterward. That book, by itself, would get a 4. However, combined with the extra scientist social club, reduces The Great Influenza to a 2 out of 5. And I very much hope there will be no book about the current H1N1 pandemic of 2009 to top this one.

Eco-Smugness goes to eleven

I bought a 2010 Toyota Prius on Saturday. Not just any Prius, either; a silver Prius III with the Solar Roof Package. Why? Environmental snobbery? Well, no. According to the survey, over half of 2007 Prius buyers bought it to make a statement. I didn’t. Actually, that was a negative factor, since I don’t feel the need to increase Smug.

My prior car, a 1999 Pontiac Grand Am GT, has been slowly dying. It served me well, surviving a major crash in 2004 (a 18-wheeler clipped my back bumper on the Dan Ryan Expressway). Yet little things kept breaking, like a power window, power mirrors, and weak air conditioning. Things could get bad fast, and I have some summer driving to do. Given my financial and personal situation, it became time to start searching. So I thought about what car would I want today, and in 2015, and maybe 2020.

Reliability eliminates almost everything from GM and Chrysler. Ten years and 89,000 miles was good for the Pontiac, but Nissan, Honda, and Toyota cars routinely run past 100,000 miles. Because Ford has been rapidly improving quality this decade, I left them on the list. It’s not Fix Or Repair Daily anymore, and not surprisingly Ford is the American automaker in the best shape. My driving needs are primarily in the city, and I don’t transport kids, drive on dirt roads, or pull a boat. Since I like quiet and comfort, with some transport needs, I wanted a car that could hold four adults designed for comfortable city life. Driving is not a source of excitement or fun, like a super exotic tour. I’m point to point.

Also, I want to be prepared in case gasoline returns to $4 a gallon, which is one crazy situation away. Like, what if Iran went into disorder? Oh. Oops. The current European average is around 40 MPG, but there are very few choices in America. Diesel engines, popular across the pond, generally don’t come here. Over 35 MPG there are only six options: Toyota Prius, Smart fortwo, Honda Insight, Honda Civic Hybrid, Jetta diesel TDi, Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan hybrid. The smart was out, because I would like to be married in 5 years and thinking about a three person family (and even if I’m not, reviews call it noisy and uncomfortable). I considered the Jetta, but the more relevant city MPG figures were low and diesel didn’t appeal to me.

That left four hybrid vehicles, two hatchbacks (Toyota Prius and Honda Insight) and two sedans (Ford Fusion and Honda Civic). Two of the four, the Prius and Fusion, can run completely on electric power, while the Insight and Civic use electric solely for assistance. Also, the Civic and Insight are smaller cars than the Fusion and Prius. All four cars are well rated, with good reliability ratings from Consumer Reports. There’s nothing wrong with any of them. It depends on what you want.

I first eliminated the two Hondas. I examined the Insight, including a test drive. I would not comfortably fit in the back seat. Also, the finish is not as nice as the Prius or Fusion. On the drive, though it is pretty quiet, the lack of complete engine turnoff when stopped was a relative negative. On the positive side, it drives more like a sports car. Also, the Insight is least expensive, but the cost difference is not as big as advertised. The $19,800 LX option package does not include cruise control. With cruise and a center console, the EX package costs about $21,500 including destination charges. For $1,500 more, you can get a Prius II. I would recommend the Insight for singles or young couples that want a sporty feel and 40+ MPG.

After trying the Insight and hearing the lack of full quiet when stopped, I didn’t test drive the Civic Hybrid; it uses the same engine style. It looks good and comfortable, and gets very good ratings overall. If you’re looking for the sedan style, it’s a serious contender. It’s smaller than the Fusion, but also less expensive at an estimated real price of about $24,000.

I test drove three vehicles of each of my two finalists. The Fusion/Milan wound up as runner-up, but it’s still a wonderful car. An American company has found the future. It will run fully on electric power; I did that at 30-35 miles per hour. Compared to the Prius, it’s more powerful on the road and lets less road noise into the cabin. The seats are very comfortable, and I easily fit in the back seat. Most of the cars come with sunroof and backup camera. The backup camera in the 501A package projects on the rear view mirror, which might be more appealing than on a navigation screen – as in the 502A package and Prius.
There are a few disadvantages. First, because Ford put the batteries between the back seat and the trunk, the seats do not fold down. Second, though not unwieldy, it is about 15 inches longer and has a larger turning radius than the other cars. Third, the mileage is not as good as the Prius; Real world reports are 38-42 miles per gallon, not 48-52.

Also, the Fusion is the most expensive, with the 501A about $29,500. There are discounts, unlike the other cars; one is a US government tax credit of $1700 until September 30, then $850 for six more months. Furthermore, a few dealers will take Ford discount plans even on this high demand vehicle, though they don’t have to. The X-plan offers a fixed no haggle discount of about 6% from MSRP. With the discount and credit, the effective price is about $26,500. You can get a plan PIN from a Ford employee or by working at some companies, but there’s another easy way. Just buy some Ford stock, which costs $5.72 per share as I write, and according to the documents there’s no minimum number of shares. You can spend less than $100 to buy 10 shares, then apply to get the PIN. If you are interested, you can do a Goodle search, or email me and I’ll give you directions. And you should be interested if you’re looking for a midsize sedan. The Fusion hybrid is the best hybrid midsize sedan. It might be the best midsize sedan short of a $40,000 BMW 3-series. Regular options might be cheaper, but the difference between 25 MPG and 38 MPG is 13 gallons every 1000 miles. At 100,000 miles and $3 per gallon, 1300 gallons is $3900, roughly the hybrid premium. I strongly suggest paying now and getting the quieter ride, if you can.

With options, the Prius I bought cost about the same as my second choice, a black Ford Fusion 501A with leather. What tipped the scales? I considered the advantages of the Fusion above. On the other hand, the Prius is smaller and more maneuverable, while maintaining passenger space. The hatchback design provides more flexibility, and Toyota did a great job of maximizing interior space. The interior is still nice and comfy. Power is more than sufficient. Keyless entry and startup is very nice. Toyota has a better reliability reputation overall, even though the Fusion’s rating has been very good. And the extra 10 MPG is substantial.

In the end, it came down to options. The considered Fusion has a fancy radio, Bluetooth phone integration, sunroof, backup camera, and leather. The midlevel $24,000 Prius III has a fancy radio and Bluetooth phone integration. The Solar package adds a sunroof and backup camera. There’s no leather, but there are other things. A navigation screen is nice, but not worth much since there are good voice navigators available for $250. What clinched the deal were two things designed for hot climates, remote AC and solar roof fan. Getting into an overheated car is miserable, as all the glass raises the temperature inside above the outside air. The Solar package adds a 56 watt solar panel, which powers a fan. (And if things go really bad, I can strip it for electricity.) When it’s hot and sunny, the sun provides enough energy to circulate outside air; the inside becomes like the outside. Then, as I approach the vehicle, I can start the A/C remotely. My passengers and I feel less pain. In no way would I claim this is like, let’s say, cholera in Zimbabwe. I realize I’m blessed to have a car or A/C. Things are good, and I need to take advantage of them to change the world. I’m thankful.

At some point I’ll write up what I learned about buying a car, and interacting with 8 dealerships (4 Toyota, 2 Ford, 2 Honda). Despite the radical increase in technology, people, well, are still people.

The Stockdale Paradox

It’s not a secret that I think very highly of heroic women and men. One of my favorite posts is Medals and Goodness, about medals, virtue, and evil. From time to time I read tales of Carnegie Hero Medal award winners. And every American should read every citation of new Medal of Honor recipients. I might suggest Michael Murphy, whose story appeared in the New York Times. Let’s look at part of the official citation.

On 28 June 2005, operating in an extremely rugged enemy-controlled area, Lieutenant Murphy’s team was discovered by anti-coalition militia sympathizers, who revealed their position to Taliban fighters. As a result, between 30 and 40 enemy fighters besieged his four member team. Demonstrating exceptional resolve, Lieutenant Murphy valiantly led his men in engaging the large enemy force. The ensuing fierce firefight resulted in numerous enemy casualties, as well as the wounding of all four members of the team. Ignoring his own wounds and demonstrating exceptional composure, Lieutenant Murphy continued to lead and encourage his men. When the primary communicator fell mortally wounded, Lieutenant Murphy repeatedly attempted to call for assistance for his beleaguered teammates. Realizing the impossibility of communicating in the extreme terrain, and in the face of almost certain death, he fought his way into open terrain to gain a better position to transmit a call. This deliberate, heroic act deprived him of cover, exposing him to direct enemy fire. Finally achieving contact with his headquarters, Lieutenant Murphy maintained his exposed position while he provided his location and requested immediate support for his team. In his final act of bravery, he continued to engage the enemy until he was mortally wounded, gallantly giving his life for his country and for the cause of freedom.

Another such recipient is James Stockdale, perhaps most famous for his terrible performance in the 1992 Vice Presidential debate. That’s a shame, because his story is much better than what he showed that one night, against professional politicians with less than two weeks’ notice. Let’s summarize Stockdale’s courage:

He was held as a prisoner of war in the Hoa Lo prison for the next seven years. Locked in leg irons in a bath stall, he was routinely tortured and beaten. When told by his captors that he was to be paraded in public, Stockdale slit his scalp with a razor to purposely disfigure himself so that his captors could not use him as propaganda. When they covered his head with a hat, Stockdale beat himself with a stool until his face was swollen beyond recognition. He told them in no uncertain terms that they would never use him. When Stockdale heard that other prisoners were dying under the torture, he slit his wrists and told them that he preferred death to submission.

Wow.

After his return from captivity, Admiral Stockdale became a leader, author of four books, and philosopher. You might consider his writings at the Naval Academy’s Stockdale Center for Ethical Leadership. The big lesson here is about how he survived the years in Vietnam, a terrible situation. It’s much worse than anyplace I’ve been, or expect to be. It was a brutal place. He described his philosophy to Jim Collins in the book Good to Great. The story, not long and well worth reading, is quoted on Mr. Collins’ website. Mr. Stockdale said that the optimists never made it out of the POW camps. “They died of a broken heart.” We come to the most important quote, the Stockdale Paradox.

You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

Ever since I’ve read that quote, I’ve been struck by its importance. Like most people, I’ve been in difficult, troubling situations. The most recurrent was biochemical depression pain; another was a messy Church situation; there is at least one I don’t talk about out of respect for others.

It’s taken a long time to understand the Stockdale Paradox. It’s manmade, so it’s not as tough as the Holy Trinity, but it’s not easy. It’s both passion and realism, examining both Happily Ever After and Homelessness in America, holding simultaneously hope and logic. What a pair, faith and discipline. Both are not simple. Faith requires believing in what can be, but is not; Discipline requires ignoring what can be, focusing on what is.

Neither of the two parts is difficult to understand, and most people can handle one or the other. Both at the same time, however, is the tricky part. In my struggles, I had to bifurcate my thoughts, almost, dividing them into branches. I built detachment into my thoughts. I got better, and then could combine the future and the present. Well, eventually I got there, mostly. There are still times where my mind can bounce quickly, from the concept of future joy to the pain of a current problem. It’s still a little strange that I can laugh and be happy, then shift to tears within a minute, then come back to happiness in under five. The control is not yet total.

For me, when I fail I generally lose the light of faith, surrounded by the darkness of realism and the funk of depression. I keep trying to gain the lesson given by Admiral Stockdale. I really should read his writings – there’s likely much more there. Right now, in Holy Week, people think a little more about the multiple expression of Jesus, divine and human. In general, people tend not to get that. Maybe the minority that understands some of that dual nature understands some of the Stockdale Paradox as well. Maybe the do, but in the general majority, I think not. There’s too much despair around, topped with hedonism masking despair.
I hope that I can gain more knowledge of how to act and what truly matters, and that I don’t have to go through what Mr. Murphy or Mr. Stockdale did to gain it. Their stories, and their heroism, have helped me, and for that I salute them. Maybe it is enough. Faith and discipline, together, is the lesson.

Semi-live Blog: Yale vs Harvard

I’m at home, working on many things this Saturday. To my joy, it turns out that I can watch the football game betwen the source of goodness, Harvard, versus the embodiment of evil known as Yale. Before I go on, I should mention that the preceding link does take you to Yale’s website. I don’t hate Yale at all; it’s just a rival. Just remember that Yale sucks.

Instead of repeating more episodes of WEC WrekCage and North American Hunter, the Versus network has decided to double their per viewer income by showing the contest. I have it on TiVo and will make a semi-live blog today as I work. For those of you who are going to go back and watch the game again, and would like to match the comments to actual times in the game, I’ll include the time that things happened live.

• 12:06 PM Eastern: It’s the 125th time that Yale and Harvard have met for football. In this opening shot, I think Mather House, my undergraduate residence and horrible Brutalist architecture, in the picture. It doesn’t have a cute bell tower.
• 12:11: One fun thing about Ivy League football is that because the players are not as good as minor league football (excuse me, BCS “college” football), random events can occur. For instance, on the opening kickoff, the two Harvard return men run into each other and the ballcarrier falls down at the 4 yard line. The refrain here is that it’s the Ivy League. You’ll see this often.
• 12:20: Harvard drives but has to punt. The punt hits a Yale Bulldog on the back foot and Harvard recovers. It’s the Ivy League. I am embarrassed, however, that the TV shows a shot of a Harvard fan with a profane statement involving Yale for about three seconds. That’s not what a Harvard gentleman should ever say. Besides, one would likely get an STI if one tried that.
• 12:22: From the turnover, Harvard scores the first of what will likely be many touchdowns. The Yale cheerleaders turn quiet. Did you know that George W. Bush was a cheerleader at Andover and Yale? The head football cheerleader, according to the Washington Post. Maybe less confusion about his “manliness” would have meant no stupid war in Iraq, or Mission Accomplished banner, or … who knows?
• 12:26: Showing superior intelligence, as we all know, Harvard surprises Yale with an onside kick. Harvard gets another offensive possession.
• 12:33: The Harvard kicker misses a 33 yard field goal attempt. Harvard Stadium is very close to the Charles River, and the winds can get nasty in November. Playing Ultimate Frisbee in November next to the stadium was often an wind festival. Still, that’s not good.
• 12:48: Harvard throws a short pass, but the receiver fumbles the ball. It flies 11 yards backwards before going out of bounds. It’s the Ivy League.
• 13:01: Yale misses a 19 yard field goal. That was ugly. The wind is just nasty.
• 13:03: The TIAA-CREF student athlete of the game is a real student, Casey Gerald from Yale. He had his Rhodes Scholarship interview yesterday, and made it back in time for the game. This is good. Also, I’m very pleased by the amount of coverage Myron Rolle of Florida State is receiving about his Rhodes finalist interview. At times like these, in my heart, I can pretend that academics matters to the NCAA and college sports folks.
• 13:17: Harvard gets stopped on a third down with about 45 seconds to go, and will have to attempt a field goal. Showing their intelligence, Yale does not call timeout to get another possession after the kick. (This is a bad move, by the way.) That attempt was hideous. The kicker planted far too far forward and hooked it badly. Wind played no role. At the half, the commentator says “it has been exciting, it has been unpredictable.” Of course, it’s the Ivy League. Harvard leads 7-0.
• 13:25: The Harvard Sports commercial is on, the public service bit. Most of these commercials feature an announcer and fast moving pictures. Here, let’s look at who Harvard uses: A Harvard women’s basketball player talking about the 16 over 1, a football player talking about 29-29, and a women’s hockey player about 1989 men’s hockey. Every word is spoken by a student. How innovative. How interesting. Players can speak full sentences. I feel smart. Then, the next commercial has guys about jumping into jeans. There went that.
• 13:31: Yale’s commercial uses a narrator, no real people, and shots of the campus. Showing Harvard superiority is like shooting fish in a barrel, really.
• 13:50: The officials make a mistake and rule a Harvard fumble, even though the quarterback’s knee was down. Yale recovers. It’s just another Yale nefarious technique, to be expected.
• 13:53: Yale does not score after its trick. It then has a 12 yard punt. Justice is restored.
• 14:00: One of the displays refers to the 1894 Harvard-Yale game as the Springfield Massacre. I found this description online. It was brutal, with a broken leg, major concussion, broken collarbone, crushed nose, 2 eye pokes, head injury, and fight. One player wound up in a coma. The article is adapted from The Only Game that Matters, a book on the history of the rivalry. I don’t own a copy, sadly. Hmm.
• 14:18: Some Yale undergraduates show “genius bordering on insanity” by going briefly shirtless on TV. No, this is basically full insanity. And just shirtless is going halfway. Chicago’s Polar Bear Run is the real deal.
• 14:21: Harvard’s kicker manages to make a field goal, leading to a likely insurmountable 10-0 lead for the Crimson.
• 14:38: Yale’s best play is the punt, getting the ball inside the Harvard 1. At this point, it’s 15:03 in real life, as I’ve been pausing. My mom calls me with the final result. I thank her for ruining the surprise. For you, well, we’ll see.
• 14:48: Yale’s best play occurs again, this time a return inside the Harvard 10. On fourth down at the Harvard 4, Yale shows its true intentions by committing a false start penalty. The fourth down pass is incomplete, but the officials call a pass interference penalty on Harvard. This is a correct call, and I’m saddened that the Harvard back would attempt to cheat. Likely it was just accidental. Of course, I’m not as sad as the spectator with profanity on his shirt. With new life, Yale attempts to pass, but there’s a fumble! The quarterback got hammered from behind and drops the ball. Harvard recovers.
• 14:58: Harvard makes a first down, which allows them to run out the clock. The victory formation ends the game. The final score is Forces of Good 10, Forces of Evil 0. So, in this month, Obama wins and Harvard wins. Things are looking up. The hills are alive with the sound of music. Too bad that final score isn’t in real life.
• 14:59: The teams line up for handshakes after the game. According to the commentators, this happens all the time in the Ivy League. The players have respect and class, of course. That fan in the stands is just an anomaly. After the game, fans and players mingle on the field. It’s an orderly storming.

So, that’s that. According to the studio, Yale had only 90 yards of offense. Harvard had 370. The margin was appropriate. More good events, eh?

Amazement

If you had asked me in the past if I would see a Black man as President-elect, I would ask you the country you were thinking about. Of course, there are many countries with black-skinned majorities. Many have Presidents. Some are even not dictators. Let’s move to more challenging cases. 1978 South Africa? That would be at least theoretically possible, in the home of the Makana FA. Numbers were against the National Party from the start, the Gleneagles Agreement restricting sports contacts had been passed, and pressure was beginning to build. 1988 Namibia? The South African Border War was winding down, and Christmas came with an agreement for Namibian independence. Representative future was near.

Let’s try places where people with colored skin are a minority. 21st Century Europe? Well, as the San Francisco Gate reported, minority members of European governments are few and far between. France has exactly one parliamentary deputy out of 577, even though African ethnics are about 10 percent of the population. Out of 646 members in the House of Commons, Britain has just 15 minorities. There may be more women than America, but they’re basically all white. That’s not true in the United States. While Europeans might make nasty remarks about America and race, it’s interesting to look at the facts. Would every person in France vote for, say, an Algerian? I think not. Or Germans for someone with a Turkish father? Even in a Republican administration, Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice served at the cabinet level. And in real postings, too, not the “Minority Affairs” positions created in Europe. Right now, we have a black woman fourth in the succession line.

Still, for someone of color to reach the top? In 2008 America? When about half the electorate, those 45 and over, were born when racial segregation was legal? When for people over 40, having parents of different races was not everywhere legal?

Yet 52% of those who voted, 64 Million Americans, cast a vote for a Black Man. Well, OK, half-black. Does that make it 32 million colored votes? That is more than the population of European France, 61.9 million. 64 Million people, for Barack Hussein Obama. I was one of them. This was not a simple decision. I really wish Mr Obama did not support abortion. Mr McCain has a somewhat stronger record on that front, though he did not advocate for a total ban. Additionally, Mr McCain, unlike America’s current president, has personal integrity. It’s not obvious. In the Catholic definition, my proportionate reasons were the Iraq war and the choice of Vice President. I do not consider Governor Palin qualified to hold nuclear command codes. Not someone who, according to a Fox News contributor, didn’t know Africa was a continent. Or even as a millionaire, manages to need $150,000 for clothes. Or even though she did reduce travel expenses, she still takes a per diem from Alaska to sleep in her own house. It’s not that hard to be governor of a state with fewer people than Metro Louisville, who has enough oil to have a massive budget surplus.

Fortunately, the world is saved from that possibility, at least for a while. And one of those other great men, from another place, the South African
Mr. Mandela, gave congratulations. As did many others around the world.

How did it happen? Many things we don’t know. The exit polls have a very interesting story. Voters over 65, who spent their entire childhood under segregation, gave 53% of their votes to Mr McCain, 1% more than to Mr Bush four years ago. People between 30 and 64 went slightly for Mr Obama, at about 51%, 4 – 5 points more than Mr Kerry’s vote. But what about those between 18 and 29? Two-thirds, 66 percent, for the next President! Twelve points more!

Generations do change. I am, literally, amazed. And that’s a good thing.

The homeless figures dilemma

I was visiting my parents in Pennsylvania, and I returned to an interesting request. A reporter from the New York Times had found the abstract of my talk on the age of homeless in America. The New York Coalition for the Homeless had received donated time for television advertisements. You can view the modified ads from this page.

Why do I call them modified ads? Well, they used to be different. The 90 second ad and the Facts ad used to include less quotes in the middle, and a different ending. It used to conclude “and by the way, the average age of a homeless person is nine.” As of early July, the original ad still appears on Youtube. I had heard this statement earlier, during the December 2007 Commencement at Bellarmine.

The article appears online at the Times’ City Room blog. Thus, I helped cause a change in the ads.

The full implications of this work startled me. There’s the boost to my professional career. Bellarmine also gets a mention in a big publication, helping the school. Of course, this means I now need to know a lot about the situation. This was originally just a teaching example, but now it’s not. Fortunately, I managed to find an assistant for the research; she and I will have something ready by Mathfest at the end of this month.

There’s a moral issue, as well. The Coalition was hurt by the negative exposure. That’s not a good thing, as homelessness is a large problem. Many people without permanent shelter are children, thousands in New York alone. Even if not half, they could use support. Weakening the groups that provide and advocate for support does not help. On the other hand, I have an academic responsibility to accurate statistics, as much as we can. An average age of 9 does not appear correct. In Catholic thought, even for the right ends, wrong means are inappropriate and sinful. This is a right end. Using a misleading (at best) figure is an inappropriate, potentially sinful way to do that. I should help. But it hurts a little. It’s funny how seemingly simple things, like 15 minute talks, can become moral dilemmas. I wish I had an answer here, or even better words to describe my feelings. Maybe later, I will.

Women Deserve Better

Back in February, I received a personal invitation to view the rehearsal of a controversial event. No, I don’t mean the 2008 KYMAA math festival. I mean an event on Bellarmine’s campus that was held around 14 February. The stated purpose of the event is to raise funds and interest to fight violence against women, as stated on the web site. That particular link has no potentially offensive or vulgar terms, but other pages on that site do. I’m talking about something called V-Day, with V not for Violence or Valentine. Know what? I’d like to use actual terms, which are considered impolite, so I’ll send this beyond the more link. Click away if you wish.
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