• June 25, 2011 /  Book Reviews

    Sometimes procrastination is a good thing. (This advice doesn’t apply to statistics assignments, though.) I had finished reading the two books about Mr. Mortenson, Three Cups of Tea and Stones into Schools, back in January. I was inspired by what appeared to be a fantastic tale of optimism and hope. But now, is it just fantastic?

    In April, 60 Minutes ran an investigative pieces. Led by author Jon Krakauer, a former supported turned jilted cynic, there’s now an Amazon e-book on the subject. It questions the Korphe story, 1996 Waziristan visit, number of successful projects, and proportion of funds spent on travel and appearances.

    Online, you’ll find defenders, sort-of defenders, and attackers. If you asked me – and since it’s my blog I’ll assume you do, thanks for asking – the problems are due to administrative incompetence. If Mr. Mortenson is gaining personal wealth, it’s hard to find. He lives in Bozeman, Montana. He used to be a healthy mountain climber, but now has gained substantial weight and had to have open heart surgery. That doesn’t sound like personal profit, such as a Rolls-Royce Phantom or a G6.

    Mortenson has admitted mistakes, in this magazine interview. The visits to Korphe and some other trips were compressed for literary impact. He still believes he was detained in Waziristan, since his passport was taken. He admits that there has been some fraud in Asia. And he notes the large amount of money spent on speaking tours, defending it as outreach. This interview, which has gotten very little attention, appears to be the response of a rightly guided yet flawed individual. The problems exist and are fixable. It’s a sizable failure of infrastructure, similar to family run businesses. Visionaries aren’t usually accountants. A Toronto Sun opinion piece summarized it well: “In the end, it may turn out Greg Mortenson shares the same shades of grey as the rest of us (and/or needs a bigger and better board of directors to help manage his charity).”

    The other interesting point is the role of the journalist. Mr. Krakauer wrote an earlier book about mountain climbing, in which he voted not to rescue two fellow climbers. They died. Krakauer showed the survivor mentality, that there are places where morality doesn’t apply. Above 8000 meters was like a Hobbesian state – Objectivist or Corporate Capitalist. In writing this article, instead of trying to correct the problems through the board, Krakauer was Hobbesian again. While it’s good for his reputation and TV ratings, it’s bad for the CAI mission and central Asia overall.

    Journalism is about the attack now, whatever the consequences. People of my generation have grown up idolizing Woodward and Bernstein, that only scandal publication will effect change. I hear this from professors, that we need to speak Truth to Power. Umm … we ARE power. Right? Instead of building coalitions and structures, we get tales like this, and the Rolling Stone article on General McChrystal that led to his dismissal. The magazine says it “changed history”. That may be true, but I wouldn’t call it a good change, one that should be accompanied with pride.

    The sad part of this tale – and my book reviews earning a 2 (not 4) out of 5 – is that the CAI had a chance to deserve an honest heroic story. The problems were correctable. Now, they’re likely irreparable, without remorse. As the support of female education wanes, I hope the mission can survive – but I’m too much a product of the cynical generation to have that much hope.

  • June 12, 2011 /  Notices

    As many of you know, this was my last academic year at Bellarmine. Because of last year’s dissertation failure, I could not continue as a professor. I’m in a bind; I need a completed terminal degree or another line of work.

    After pondering for a while, I decided to remain an academic. I maintain few illusions about my power. If I wanted to transform individual lives, I should teach high school. The greater amount of contact means greater influence, but I don’t think I could deal with the immaturity and in-discipline. College 18-22 year olds aren’t that much more mature, but the paid nature of college means less frustration.

    Another advantage is that University professors are also expected to research. I’m intrigued by the mix of statistics and education. I love statistics, in the Spanish sense of cariƱo. And that’s very useful, because the intensity needed to commit to a project, a dataset, a program, is quite high. Additionally, I want people to respect my field. I don’t expect people to care for numbers and data like I do, but I want them to utilize the tools. It’s my way to systematically make a better world, which is better done at university.

    To continue to do so, I had to find a program that would let me pursue a doctorate. The best established program in statistics education – the ONLY full program – is in Minnesota. That climate leads to likely failure. Instead, I looked at other options. I received one excellent offer, from the Mathematics Education department of the University of Georgia. Thus, like the devil, I’ll be headed down to Georgia, but I won’t be looking for a soul to steal.

    This will make for a lot of changes beyond location. Money is important. I was graciously made a Presidential Graduate Fellow, the University’s top tier, but I am still taking a 55% pay cut. That’s not a problem for survival; I have inexpensive tastes, and I bought long lasting items over the last few years. Sure, I would like a Hyatt Grand Bed, but I even own an iPad. (And, if you want to get me a big present, that’s an idea.) I’d always planned to cut back on travel. Nevertheless, I need to finish quickly, because if I am fortunate enough to beat the odds, get married, and think about children, a graduate fellow salary is insufficient.

    I’ll also be making a cultural change. Since I’m pretty nerdy, getting to a more academic place will be positive. Even though the map shows that my “campus” is centered around the football field, indicating the relative importance of things, the people will share more of my interests. Louisville is a stable town designed for married people with kids, which I am not. Athens is more single and transient. Plus, I’ll have some access to Atlanta, which apparently has more single women than men. (But the stated Louisville ratio is even better, 81 to 100 instead of 88 for Atlanta and Athens, and that didn’t work.)

    What does that mean for this site? Well, it means more opinion content. I believe that professors should not infuse their classes with opinion. In class, my fictitious propaganda organization is called “MSNBFox News”, and I include bad poll questions from both Republicans and Democrats. They’re not hard to find, by the way. Academia has a liberal partisan bias which I don’t find acceptable. While I’m part of the liberal tribe on issues around the economy, often very liberal, I am not on issues of sexuality. This makes matters quite complicated.
    Additionally, I want to write about my experiences with the industry of education. The fundamentals are broken, and I worry that America doesn’t have the desire or capacity to fix them. While I won’t use private information from my time at Bellarmine, there will be criticism, particularly on the meaning of an undergraduate degree, and the issue of instruction versus athletics and other activities.
    Thus, a second chance is beginning, both for twelvefruits and for me. I only hope that this time, I can be as successful as Johnny and get the fiddle of gold.

  • June 12, 2011 /  Statistics

    This week, someone noted that I was single not because I was hopelessly unattractive, or that women weren’t available. It was because I was picky. We decided to go through some probabilities. Yes, I know this is very xkcd. But how far on the curve am I?

    xkcd: Dating Pools

    Some of these numbers are approximate, and others are estimates, but they’re close. I’m also assuming independence, an assumption to consider later.

    • About 1 in 2 Americans is female.
    • Of the females, about 1 in 8 matches in age, between roughly 27 and 37. That’s 1 in 16.
    • Slightly under 1 in 3 females between 25 and 34 have never been married. Let’s round the multiplication to 1 in 50.

    So far, things look promising, but then we get to personality, interests, and faith. It’d be easy if I was just looking for someone to share a household, have sex, and maybe have kids. Instead, I have criteria.

    • Being Catholic, I want to marry a Catholic. The best Pew Forum estimate is that about 1 in 4 Americans are Catholic.
    • It’s not just being Catholic, it’s being a practicing Catholic. Taking the optimistic report from this article, 1 in 3 stated Catholics attend Mass regularly. That means 1 out of 12.
    • I’m an intellectual; though I don’t meet the Urban Dictionary criterion, nerd flirt is quite charming. I would only be happy with a woman with intellectual curiosity. I’ll estimate 1 out of 20 people fall into this category, putting the count at 1 out of 240.
    • While a life partner doesn’t need to have my exact values, they need to be compatible. This is the most challenging estimate. What proportion of intelligent Catholic Mass attending women would match? We’ve already identified lots of similarities, though politics, compassion, and “chemistry” remain. Let’s somewhat arbitrarily say 1 out of 5 intelligent faithful attendees, making the final personality count 1 out of 1200.

    Before we get to the small conclusion, we have to consider independence. It helps a little. Intellectuals are slightly less likely to be married, so the 1 in 50 could become 1 in 40. The rest of the parts are reasonably independent or conditional.

    No wonder things are so tough! 1 out of 40 people are available, while 1 out of 1200 are interesting. According to population estimates, there are roughly 1,200,000 people in the Louisville metro area. Dividing 1200000 / (40 * 1200) … get out the slide rule … 25 candidate women. Plus, that doesn’t include the chance that someone I want wouldn’t want me.

    Twenty-five.

    Less than one of my classes. At least that’s 2.5 times the people the Lord needed to save Sodom. Louisville should be saved, since I like righteous women, but that doesn’t help me much.

    What does help is that the location of these women will not be independent. It’s not as easy as if there was a progressive intellectual Catholic female boarding house, but I can expect that such women will be concentrated in cities and academic settings. Fortunately for me, I’ll be moving to a large academic setting, not too far from a major transient city. That means my Z = 4.1 on the edge of the bell curve has a better chance of making the identity matrix not work.

    Love changes things

    Even the identity matrix doesn't work normally.